Ahead of the COP30 climate summit: “It’s looking really bad.”
05 November 2025
Jonas Roslund
Not enough is being done, and not fast enough. That is the harsh assessment made by LiU researchers Mathias Fridahl and Maria Jernnäs ahead of this year’s major international climate summit in Belém, Brazil. But most countries have not given up on climate change.
Assistant Professor Maria Jernnäs is participating in COP30 i Brasilien.Photographer: Jenny Widén
Maria Jernnäs is one of several researchers from Tema M – Environmental Change going to Brazil to cover the COP30 climate summit. This will be her sixth time on site for this gathering of the countries of the world.
“It’s a great exercise in becoming a pragmatist, which is not my strongest trait. You have to try to be both an idealist and a pragmatist so that you don’t lose ambition,” she says.
The world’s greenhouse gas emissions are not decreasing. The goal of limiting the temperature increase on Earth to an average of 1.5 degrees will not be reached. The United States has withdrawn from the crucial 2015 Paris Climate Agreement.
There is no shortage of reasons to feel gloomy.
“It’s looking really, really bad,” confirms Senior Associate Professor Mathias Fridahl, who will follow the meeting digitally from Sweden.
Photographer: Jenny Widén
Mathias Fridahl is not optimistic abaout the climate negotiations.
Conditions in place
On the other hand, the formal conditions for real climate work are now better than ever. In Paris in 2015, the countries of the world signed a first agreement. Since then, negotiations have been ongoing to clarify how to implement it. This work has now been done.
The problem is that revised national plans for climate action were due in February. Less than half of the countries have so far submitted their plans. For example, the EU has not been able to reach an agreement. The important issue of how the Paris Agreement is working – or maybe isn’t working – is not even on the agenda at the Belém meeting.
“But I think some countries will raise the issue when the agenda is negotiated. There will be a fight over the agenda,” says Mathias Fridahl.
A world out of step
There are also other things to be discussed at COP30. For example, how rich countries should contribute to the financing of climate action in poorer countries, how societies can adapt to climate change and whether countries can unilaterally introduce climate action at the expense of others. This applies in particular to the carbon tariffs that the EU is now imposing on goods from outside the Union – something that has annoyed both the United States and China.
The idea of the Paris Agreement is for the countries to move forward at roughly the same pace. That is not happening now. The EU is disunited, the US has left the agreement and China has made rather vague climate promises. That said, China has a clear strategy involving subsidised investments in renewable energy and battery technology, Mathias Fridahl points out.
“China is positioning itself very strongly in those markets right now. This is very expensive for the Chinese state, but they will be in a very good position in 10 to 15 years’ time, when the climate crisis has become so serious that countries suddenly understand the disadvantages and costs of not taking action.”
Glimmer of hope
At the same time, there are glimmers of hope. Electricity production from renewable energy sources recently exceeded the production of electricity from fossil fuels. Technologies to clean the atmosphere from carbon dioxide are being tested in various pilot projects and the EU is developing a market to make it worthwhile to invest in such technologies.
Mathias Fridahl thinks that we may be at a kind of tipping point. In the past, there has been a lot of focus on costs and the need to act together. Perhaps some countries are now beginning to see competitive advantages in taking the lead in certain areas.
“It’s an exciting time in that way, but a bleak time for the Paris Agreement,” he says.
The climate summit COP26 in Glasgow.
A low-set bar
“When you are at the climate meetings, you can feel the tense atmosphere in the negotiating rooms,” says Assistant Professor Maria Jernnäs. Paris 2015 was marked by relief and confidence in the future. In Belém, there will probably be more frustration.
“It’s nevertheless positive that almost all countries are still in the Paris Agreement. They meet each year for discussions. This may seem as setting the bar low, but it still means something in the prevailing international context,” she says.
Photographer: Jenny Widén
