# Statistics and Probability, 6 credits (TNIU66)

Statistik och sannolikhetslära, 6 hp

### Main field of study

Mathematics Applied Mathematics

First cycle

Programme course

### Examiner

Michael Hörnquist

### Director of studies or equivalent

George Baravdish
Course offered for Semester Period Timetable module Language Campus VOF
6IBYG Civil Engineering, Bachelor of Science in Engineering 2 (Spring 2019) 1 4 Swedish Norrköping v
6KFTL Air Transportation and Logistics, Bachelor's Programme 2 (Spring 2019) 1 4 Swedish Norrköping o
6KLOG Civic Logistics, Bachelor's Programme 2 (Spring 2019) 1 4 Swedish Norrköping o

### Main field of study

Mathematics, Applied Mathematics

First cycle

G1X

### Course offered for

• Bachelor of Science in Civil Engineering
• Bachelor's Programme in Air Transportation and Logistics
• Bachelor's Programme in Civic Logistics

### Entry requirements

Note: Admission requirements for non-programme students usually also include admission requirements for the programme and threshold requirements for progression within the programme, or corresponding.

### Prerequisites

A first course in mathematics at university level.

### Intended learning outcomes

The course aims to provide an introduction to mathematical modeling of random trials and to statistical methods and concepts. It shall also demonstrate applications relevant to the programs for which it is given. After the course the student will be able to:

• analyze the distribution of a dataset for the central value and dispersion, such as mean, median and standard deviation, and visualize this.
• describe different approaches to the concept of probability.
• calculate probabilities of events, using concepts and tools such as independence, conditioning, incompatibility, complement event, union, intersection, combinatorics, tree diagram.
• formulate a probabilistic model using random variables, also with the central limit theorem, and use it to determine the characteristics of its distribution and calculate probabilities.
• calculate point estimates of expected value, variance , standard deviation, probability and intensity, and assess their suitability.
• calculate confidence intervals for the expected value (with and without a known standard deviation), probability and intensity, and interpret the results.
• formulate and implement hypothesis testing, and therein interpret the concepts of strength functions and P-value.
• conduct a correlation analysis and interpret the results.
• set up and interpret a linear regression model with two variables, determine whether a linear model is applicable and assess the reliability of estimates of both expected values ​​as well as of individual observations.
• use computer support for all calculations where relevant.
• ### Course content

• Probability: the concepts of probability. Sample space and event. Set theory and combinatorics. Conditional probabilities, Bayes' Theorem and the concept of independent events. Discrete and continuous random variables with distribution measures such as expected value, variance / standard deviation, covariance and correlation. The most common probability models, including uniform, binomial, poisson, exponential and normal distribution model. The Central Limit Theorem.
• Statistics: Descriptive statistics with the concepts of mean, median and standard deviation, and visualizations. Point and interval estimates of the expected value (with and without a known standard deviation), probability and intensity. Point estimation of variance and standard deviation. Hypothesis testing, including P-value and intensity function. Correlation. Linear regression for two variables, including control of suitablitity and determination of confidence and prediction intervals.

### Teaching and working methods

Teaching is done in lectures, problem classes and laboratory work.

### Examination

 UPG1 Optional assignments for bonus on final exam U, G 0 credits LAB1 Laboratory work U, G 1.5 credits TEN1 Written examination U, 3, 4, 5 4.5 credits

Bonus on final exam from assignments is valid for one year.

Four-grade scale, LiU, U, 3, 4, 5

### Other information

 Supplementary courses: Courses in simulation, quantitative logistics etc.

### Department

Institutionen för teknik och naturvetenskap

### Director of Studies or equivalent

George Baravdish

### Examiner

Michael Hörnquist

### Education components

Preliminary scheduled hours: 38 h
Recommended self-study hours: 122 h

### Course literature

##### Books
Wahlin, Karl, (2015) Tillämpad statistik: en grundkurs 2. uppl. Stockholm: Sanoma utbildning, 2015
ISBN: 9789152327821
##### Compendiums
M. Hörnquist, Exempelsamling

### Books

Wahlin, Karl, (2015) Tillämpad statistik: en grundkurs 2. uppl. Stockholm: Sanoma utbildning, 2015

ISBN: 9789152327821

### Compendia

M. Hörnquist, Exempelsamling

 UPG1 Optional assignments for bonus on final exam U, G 0 credits LAB1 Laboratory work U, G 1.5 credits TEN1 Written examination U, 3, 4, 5 4.5 credits

Bonus on final exam from assignments is valid for one year.

## Course syllabus

A syllabus has been established for each course. The syllabus specifies the aim and contents of the course, and the prior knowledge that a student must have in order to be able to benefit from the course.

## Timetabling

Courses are timetabled after a decision has been made for this course concerning its assignment to a timetable module. A central timetable is not drawn up for courses with fewer than five participants. Most project courses do not have a central timetable.

## Interrupting a course

The vice-chancellor’s decision concerning regulations for registration, deregistration and reporting results (Dnr LiU-2015-01241) states that interruptions in study are to be recorded in Ladok. Thus, all students who do not participate in a course for which they have registered must record the interruption, such that the registration on the course can be removed. Deregistration from a course is carried out using a web-based form: www.lith.liu.se/for-studenter/kurskomplettering?l=sv.

## Cancelled courses

Courses with few participants (fewer than 10) may be cancelled or organised in a manner that differs from that stated in the course syllabus. The board of studies is to deliberate and decide whether a course is to be cancelled or changed from the course syllabus.

## Regulations relating to examinations and examiners

Details are given in a decision in the university’s rule book: http://styrdokument.liu.se/Regelsamling/VisaBeslut/622678.

## Forms of examination

### Examination

Written and oral examinations are held at least three times a year: once immediately after the end of the course, once in August, and once (usually) in one of the re-examination periods. Examinations held at other times are to follow a decision of the board of studies.

Principles for examination scheduling for courses that follow the study periods:

• courses given in VT1 are examined for the first time in March, with re-examination in June and August
• courses given in VT2 are examined for the first time in May, with re-examination in August and October
• courses given in HT1 are examined for the first time in October, with re-examination in January and August
• courses given in HT2 are examined for the first time in January, with re-examination at Easter and in August.

The examination schedule is based on the structure of timetable modules, but there may be deviations from this, mainly in the case of courses that are studied and examined for several programmes and in lower grades (i.e. 1 and 2).

• Examinations for courses that the board of studies has decided are to be held in alternate years are held only three times during the year in which the course is given.
• Examinations for courses that are cancelled or rescheduled such that they are not given in one or several years are held three times during the year that immediately follows the course, with examination scheduling that corresponds to the scheduling that was in force before the course was cancelled or rescheduled.
• If teaching is no longer given for a course, three examination occurrences are held during the immediately subsequent year, while examinations are at the same time held for any replacement course that is given, or alternatively in association with other re-examination opportunities. Furthermore, an examination is held on one further occasion during the next subsequent year, unless the board of studies determines otherwise.
• If a course is given during several periods of the year (for programmes, or on different occasions for different programmes) the board or boards of studies determine together the scheduling and frequency of re-examination occasions.

### Registration for examination

In order to take an examination, a student must register in advance at the Student Portal during the registration period, which opens 30 days before the date of the examination and closes 10 days before it. Candidates are informed of the location of the examination by email, four days in advance. Students who have not registered for an examination run the risk of being refused admittance to the examination, if space is not available.

Symbols used in the examination registration system:

** denotes that the examination is being given for the penultimate time.

* denotes that the examination is being given for the last time.

### Code of conduct for students during examinations

Details are given in a decision in the university’s rule book: http://styrdokument.liu.se/Regelsamling/VisaBeslut/622682.

Students at the Institute of Technology at LiU have the right to retake written examinations and computer-based examinations in an attempt to achieve a higher grade. This is valid for all examination components with code “TEN” and "DAT". The same right may not be exercised for other examination components, unless otherwise specified in the course syllabus.

### Retakes of other forms of examination

Regulations concerning retakes of other forms of examination than written examinations and computer-based examinations are given in the LiU regulations for examinations and examiners, http://styrdokument.liu.se/Regelsamling/VisaBeslut/622678.

### Plagiarism

For examinations that involve the writing of reports, in cases in which it can be assumed that the student has had access to other sources (such as during project work, writing essays, etc.), the material submitted must be prepared in accordance with principles for acceptable practice when referring to sources (references or quotations for which the source is specified) when the text, images, ideas, data, etc. of other people are used. It is also to be made clear whether the author has reused his or her own text, images, ideas, data, etc. from previous examinations.

A failure to specify such sources may be regarded as attempted deception during examination.

### Attempts to cheat

In the event of a suspected attempt by a student to cheat during an examination, or when study performance is to be assessed as specified in Chapter 10 of the Higher Education Ordinance, the examiner is to report this to the disciplinary board of the university. Possible consequences for the student are suspension from study and a formal warning. More information is available at https://www.student.liu.se/studenttjanster/lagar-regler-rattigheter?l=sv.

The grades that are preferably to be used are Fail (U), Pass (3), Pass not without distinction (4) and Pass with distinction (5). Courses under the auspices of the faculty board of the Faculty of Science and Engineering (Institute of Technology) are to be given special attention in this regard.

1. Grades U, 3, 4, 5 are to be awarded for courses that have written examinations.
2. Grades Fail (U) and Pass (G) may be awarded for courses with a large degree of practical components such as laboratory work, project work and group work.

### Examination components

1. Grades U, 3, 4, 5 are to be awarded for written examinations (TEN).
2. Grades Fail (U) and Pass (G) are to be used for undergraduate projects and other independent work.
3. Examination components for which the grades Fail (U) and Pass (G) may be awarded are laboratory work (LAB), project work (PRA), preparatory written examination (KTR), oral examination (MUN), computer-based examination (DAT), home assignment (HEM), and assignment (UPG).
4. Students receive grades either Fail (U) or Pass (G) for other examination components in which the examination criteria are satisfied principally through active attendance such as other examination (ANN), tutorial group (BAS) or examination item (MOM).

The examination results for a student are reported at the relevant department.

## Regulations (apply to LiU in its entirety)

The university is a government agency whose operations are regulated by legislation and ordinances, which include the Higher Education Act and the Higher Education Ordinance. In addition to legislation and ordinances, operations are subject to several policy documents. The Linköping University rule book collects currently valid decisions of a regulatory nature taken by the university board, the vice-chancellor and faculty/department boards.

LiU’s rule book for education at first-cycle and second-cycle levels is available at http://styrdokument.liu.se/Regelsamling/Innehall/Utbildning_pa_grund-_och_avancerad_niva.

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