A sustainable transition of the energy system towards and increasing share of bioenergy

This interdisciplinary doctoral project within Forskarskola Energisystem (Graduate School in Energy Systems) has applied a holistic approach to study the importance of and the possibilities for a sustainable transition of the energy system towards an increased share of bioenergy, in the development towards a bio-based economy. The focus has been on biorefineries based on forest feedstocks, for the production of various energy carriers with the potential to contribute to the defossilisation of the energy system. Within the project, a knowledge and model framework has been constructed that enables both advanced systems analysis related to Sweden’s forest-based raw materials and their role in a sustainable energy system, and analysis of the transition of the process industry to future biorefineries. In the project, we have highlighted various system aspects related to the development of and investments in biorefineries, how this can be accomplished, what effects large-scale implementation of biorefineries or other advanced uses of forest biomass would have on biomass markets and industrial structure in Sweden, and which policy instruments that can be relevant. The research questions have had their starting point in Sweden and Swedish conditions, but with a clear international perspective both on resources and technologies, and on policy and market aspects.

From a market point of view, the results illustrate the importance of considering market responses in the process of energy and environmental policy development and implementation. For instance, the forest industry sector and the bioenergy sector are closely interlinked and can either make or break one another, depending on the policy design. The results also show that for an increased demand of bioenergy, an industrial transformation is to be expected, as well as increased roundwood harvest. At the same time, policies aiming to increase the use and production of environmentally friendly fuels may create undesirable lock-in-effects with technologies that depend on the use of long term unsustainable feedstocks. From a technology and value chain point of view, the results show that integration with existing industry and existing supply chains for forest biomass can certainly both increase the energy efficiency and improve the economic performance, but that the energy-optimal integration does not always result in the lowest production costs.

By applying a soft-linking method-combining model and analysis framework, we have also highlighted and expanded on the complexity of how system costs for large-scale implementation of forest-based biorefineries are composed. The framework can be used to, for example, identify not only the policy support that would be needed to enable a first profitable biorefinery facility, but also the support that would be required to maintain a large production of, e.g., forest-based biofuels. The results from the application of the framework also shed light on the complexity of the relationship between the perspective of facility owners on the one hand, and policy makers on the other. The solutions that have the lowest cost to a plant owner are not necessarily the same as those that would be preferred by a decision maker at the policy level, due to the existence of hidden indirect costs.