Photo of Tilda Herrgårdh

Tilda Herrgårdh

PhD student

I use mathematical models to better understand the disease progression of stroke, and hope to be able to use the models to predict a stroke before it happens.

Hybrid models for preventative stroke care

Stroke is one of the most common causes of death, and if one does not die, the risk of getting irreversible functional disabilities is 50%.

A common reason for stroke is atherosclerosis, that develops during several years without symptoms. Furthermore, atherosclerosis involves many organs and subprocesses affecting the development, and there are many risk factors, making the disease progressions highly complex and individual. Therefore, I want to use mathematical models to capture this complexity, in a way that it can be adjusted to individuals, to be able to predict a stroke before it happens.

The kinds of models I use are of two kinds: 1) mechanistic, that describe the physiology behind a certain biological system (such as blood fat transport) and that can be trained on a specific person’s data to then predict how biomarkers (such as blood fats) evolve over time, and 2) machine learning models, that can estimate the risk of having a stroke in the future. These two kinds of models can then be combined into so called hybrid models, that can estimate your risk of having a stroke given certain scenarios, such as a medication or diet.

Short texts

Fields of teaching

  • Supervisor in bachelor project in systems biology for students in engineering biology
  • Assistant in the course Biomedical models and simulations at IMT


  • EU horizon 2020 projektet Precise4Q



Tilda Herrgårdh, Christian Simonsson, Mattias Ekstedt, Peter Lundberg, Karin G. Stenkula, Elin Nyman, Peter Gennemark, Gunnar Cedersund (2023) A multi-scale digital twin for adiposity-driven insulin resistance in humans: diet and drug effects Diabetology & Metabolic Syndrome, Vol. 15, Article 250 Continue to DOI


Tilda Herrgårdh, Vince I Madai, John D. Kelleher, Rasmus Magnusson, Mika Gustafsson, Lili Milani, Peter Gennemark, Gunnar Cedersund (2021) Hybrid modelling for stroke care: Review and suggestions of new approaches for risk assessment and simulation of scenarios NeuroImage: Clinical, Vol. 31, Article 102694 Continue to DOI
Tilda Herrgårdh, Hao Li, Elin Nyman, Gunnar Cedersund (2021) An Updated Organ-Based Multi-Level Model for Glucose Homeostasis: Organ Distributions, Timing, and Impact of Blood Flow Frontiers in Physiology, Vol. 12, Article 619254 Continue to DOI