Effective management of multiple natural events (EMMUNE)

The EMMUNE project investigated how interactions between natural events can be used to strengthen Swedish preparedness and response capabilities. The aim was to map which combinations of natural events are relevant in Sweden, which planning and decision support are missing in the rescue system, and how computer-based tools can meet these needs. The problem area concerns the climate-driven increase in simultaneous/extreme events that complicate prioritization and resource use.

Three overarching issues were addressed:

(1) which interactions are most important in the Swedish context
(2) what support needs exist for planning and management
(3) how these needs can be translated into practical decision support

The project developed a national framework that identifies 77 pairwise interactions classified as cascading effects, dispositional changes, increased risk or simultaneous outbreaks. Particularly central are connections between, for example, heat waves and forest fires, as well as heavy rainfall and flooding. Interview and document studies with, among others, municipal emergency services, county administrative boards and MSB identified 13 challenges in current working methods, especially in resource planning and management of complex sequences of events.

Two decision support prototypes were developed and evaluated together with end users:

(1) an optimization tool that suggests standby locations for flying firefighting resources based on Fire Weather Index forecasts
(2) a tool that allocates flood protection to critical functions based on forecasted water levels and community value.

Both showed good performance in simulations/case studies and were judged relevant and useful by practitioners.

Use and benefit: The results provide an evidence-based basis for risk and vulnerability analyses and for tactical/operational planning in weather and climate-related crises. The framework can guide scenario development and collaborative planning, while the tools can contribute to more equitable, transparent and standardized resource allocation, reduce cognitive load in management, and enable rapid replanning when the situation changes.

Overall, the project shows how knowledge about the interactions of natural events can be operationalized in decision support that strengthens society's ability to manage future climate-related crises.